Real Estate Market Update – January 2026
By The Toombs Team
👉 📖 View TheMarket – January 2026 Edition
As we close the door on 2025, York Region’s real estate market looks significantly different from the pandemic-era surge that defined the early part of the decade. Lower sales volumes, rising inventory, and price adjustments shaped much of the year, not as a sign of market distress, but as a long-overdue return to balance.
For buyers and sellers entering 2026, understanding how the market recalibrated over the past year is key to making informed, strategic decisions moving forward.
York Region: A Market in Transition
York Region finished 2025 with 10,847 total home sales, down nearly 6% from 2024 and less than half the activity seen during the peak of the COVID market in 2021, when over 22,000 homes were sold.
Sales volumes declined across the region. Aurora recorded the sharpest year-over-year drop, with sales down nearly 25%, while Georgina remained the most resilient, posting the smallest decline.
The primary driver behind falling prices wasn’t fear or forced selling, it was market balance. Inventory rebuilt meaningfully, buyers regained choice and negotiating power, and pricing adjusted to reflect more typical market conditions after years of rapid appreciation.
Aurora: Affordability Meets Reality
Aurora experienced some of the most pronounced changes in the York Region in 2025.
By December, the average home price was down more than $200,000 year-over-year. At the same time, inventory rose by 47%, while sales volume declined by approximately 24%.
Aurora’s higher price points became increasingly difficult for buyers to justify in a higher-rate environment. As affordability took centre stage, many buyers expanded their searches to neighbouring communities offering more attainable options. The result was longer selling timelines, increased competition among listings, and greater pressure on pricing, particularly at the upper end of the market.
East Gwillimbury: Stability Through Choice
East Gwillimbury proved more resilient than many areas across the region.
Average sale prices declined by just under $100,000, representing roughly a 7.5% decrease. This was driven by lower sales volume (down 13%) and inventory growth of 28%.
One of East Gwillimbury’s defining strengths in 2025 was diversity of inventory. Newer communities such as Holland Landing, Sharon, and Queensville have introduced a broader range of housing options, giving buyers choices that were previously limited.
Demand for rural residential properties remains strong, though inventory in this segment continues to be constrained, helping support values despite broader market softening.
Newmarket: Inventory Reshapes the Landscape
Newmarket saw one of the clearest examples of how rising inventory reshaped market dynamics in 2025.
The median sale price in December fell to $870,000, the lowest level since October 2020. While the full-year median price of $969,000 was only modestly lower than 2024’s $1,020,000, values have been trending downward steadily since peaking in early 2022 at $1,380,000.
Inventory was the defining factor. Newmarket ended the year with 211 active listings, the highest December inventory level since 2018. For context, the 10-year average number of active listings at year-end is just 123. This surge in supply has significantly shifted leverage toward buyers.
Condos also played a larger role in overall market activity, accounting for 16% of total sales in 2025. Price adjustments were evident across all housing types:
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Detached homes: $1,207,899 (down approximately $102,000 from 2024)
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Semi-detached homes: $871,678 (down over $56,000)
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Condo apartments: $599,335 (down $24,749)
Looking Ahead: What 2026 May Bring
As we move into 2026, the outlook suggests continued adjustment rather than dramatic change. Prices may soften slightly further, but improved affordability should support increased sales activity as more buyers re-enter the market.
Investor participation in the single-family home segment is expected to remain subdued, which may help ease pricing pressure and improve access for end-user buyers. With inventory at multi-year highs, location will matter more than ever, well-positioned homes in desirable neighbourhoods are still expected to outperform, even in a balanced market.
There is also potential for additional interest rate cuts later in 2026, though any easing will be carefully weighed against employment trends and inflation. The goal will be gradual affordability improvements rather than a return to rapid price acceleration.
The Bottom Line
2025 marked a clear transition for York Region real estate. Sales slowed, inventory rebuilt, and prices adjusted, not as a correction, but as a normalization following unprecedented growth.
For buyers, 2026 is shaping up to offer more choice and negotiating power. For sellers, success will depend on accurate pricing, strong presentation, and strategic positioning.
If you’d like a neighbourhood-specific analysis or want to understand how these trends affect your plans for 2026, The Toombs Team is here to help. Our monthly market reports and one-on-one consultations are designed to give you clarity and confidence, no matter where the market goes next.
